Ebullience

Ebullience

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

There is no CNBC announcement at each crossing of John Templeton’s four stages of market sentiment: pessimism, skepticism, optimism, and euphoria. But to borrow from Justice Stewart’s definition of obscenity – you know it when you see it. And signs of euphoria are popping up everywhere. The latest survey from the American Association of Individual […]

Pivot

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

So much has transpired since a year ago, it is as if someone pressed fast forward on the remote control of life. It was only a year ago that the first wave of the pandemic was building, California became the first state to issue a stay-at-home order and financial markets were engulfed in a historic […]

The Percolator

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

If you are wondering whether the stock market is in a bubble, you are not alone. After all, that is the only rational question to ask seeing the completely irrational behavior taking place in some parts of the market. While I do not believe there is a systemic, market-wide bubble (yet), we are already in […]

Crazy Train

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

After that rollercoaster of a year, 2021 could not get here fast enough. But the relief from seeing the calendar turn was fleeting. We woke up on January 1st to the persistent third wave of the pandemic, renewed lockdowns and recognition of the tough slog towards regaining normalcy. And just when political noise appeared to […]

No Man’s Land

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

After what seemed like an endless wait, November finally brought us some good news and much-needed clarity about our path forward. The election is over and notwithstanding the lingering spectacle in D.C. and slim odds of the Democrats flipping both Senate seats in Georgia’s runoff elections, we will have a divided government at least until […]

Waiting Game

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

Only 17 days remain until the November election. While 17 days is a lifetime in 2020 and political pundits – still scarred from the 2016 polling debacle – continue to agonize over current numbers and the electoral map, the stock market has embraced a more pragmatic view. If markets feared a Biden win and a […]

September Sun

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

Seasonally, September is a weak month for the equity market, so it is somewhat reassuring, if only for the sense of “normalcy” it brings in an otherwise abnormal year, that this September is proving to be just that. What began as a selloff in big tech stocks earlier in the month, extended to the broader […]

Flying High Again

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

If you spend five decades following the markets, as Bob Farrell did in his Chief Market Analyst role at Merrill Lynch, you get to know a thing or two about a thing or two. His “10 Market Rules to Remember” are a must-read for any investor and I am reminded of one of them as […]

Over the Mountain

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

If a tree falls in the forest, but no one cares because: the whole forest is on fire, does it make a sound? The answer is a definitive “no”, judging by how the second quarter GDP number was received this week. The number was stark – a 9.5% contraction in economic activity from the first […]

The Curve

Posted Posted in Morning Jog

The fastest bear market on record, followed by the best* quarter in 20 years, and a decade’s worth of economic and societal change, compressed into a just few months.  We’re half way through the year, and what a remarkable and surreal ride it has been. We’ve certainly come a long way from the depth of […]